You’re probably sick of hearing about it by now, but yes, I’m going to talk about the presidential election for a second (I honestly don’t think I’ve ever done this over the course of my 10-year blogging career). It’s a genuine question I’ve had, and in exploring the answer I thought maybe you’d like to come along for the ride! — “What happens to the economy if Biden wins?” And on the flip side, what if Trump wins again? Will our country be in a better place with one vs. the other?
Of course nobody really knows, but based on the economic policy each candidate is proposing, economists and fiscal experts can take a pretty educated guess about what will happen in the next four years.
First, Understand There’s More Than Just Economic Growth at Stake Here…
Before I even start with this analysis, I want to be sure we’re all clear. No one should vote purely based on the economic plan of each presidential candidate. There are plenty of other important issues at stake with this vote. Things like:
- same-sex marriage
- climate change
- the military
…among many other recent issues like the black lives matter movement, the police force, COVID-19, and the integrity of future elections.
So, when you’re voting (and you should ABSOLUTELY go and vote!), consider all the stances of each party when you make your decision and cast that ballot.
The Economic Proposals
What plan does each candidate have? What have they put out there for all of us to look at and review?
If Mr. Biden becomes president, he says he is going to immediately do the following:
- Stop the virus (slow re-openings, focus on testing capacity and ensure everyone has proper PPE)
- Launch a task force to get money out the door to people who need it – fast
- Bring the leaders of Congress together to build the next stimulus deal
- additional checks to families
- forgive student loans
- increase social security checks
- provide emergency paid sick leave to everyone who needs it
- ensure all COVID-19 testing, treatment, and vaccines are free
- provide fiscal relief to states in need, especially New York
Joe also states many “visions” for the country (racial equality, caregiving, schooling, ending gun violence, etc.). There are too many to list, but here’s the link.
President Trump’s Economic Plan
Mr. Trump has already been working his plan for the past four years, so many of us have already heard it and seen it. The assumption is that he’ll continue to press forward with the plan he’s already set:
- Continue to re-open the economy while monitoring the COVID cases, so we don’t get into another spike
- A new stimulus deal for $1.6 trillion
- The ‘America First’ energy plan
- Smart Trade, Not Stupid Trade – uses protectionism to defend U.S. industries from foreign competition
- Repeal and replace Obamacare
- Reduce the national debt by eliminating waste in federal spending
- Keeping taxes low – for individuals and corporations
- Sending illegal immigrants back to their home countries
- Spend on infrastructure to improve the country and provide jobs
The Top Opinions of Biden’s Plan
What are the top reviews of Joe Biden’s plans?
- US News – Many puts and takes, pros and cons of the plan and its impact on the future economy. Overall, the article states that investing in fundamentals (ie. solid companies with a strong potential for growth, regardless of the political tailwinds or headwinds) are typically much more important than presidents and their policies.
- The Economist – Believes Biden wouldn’t totally flip America’s progress on its head. Instead, he’ll improve the fortunes of the majority.
- The Globe and Mail – The market is likely to continue its track upward, especially with a chance for a larger stimulus under Democratic leadership. But, there is a lot of uncertainty in the world – there are many other factors at play.
The Top Opinions of Trump’s Plan
And how about President Trump? What is the response to his plans?
- The Atlantic – “U.S. alliances would likely crumble, the global economy would close, democracy and human rights would be in rapid retreat.”
- LPL Financial – Trump’s tax plans would continue to drive the economy in a positive direction, but tensions could ramp higher and negatively impact growth.
- Proactive Investors – “Trump’s re-election could present downside risks from civil unrest, political instability, and poor management of the coronavirus crisis.” Risk of a double-dip recession.
What’s Your Take? What Happens to the Economy If Biden Wins?
It seems that quite a few people are asking the same question as me — “What happens to the economy if Biden wins?”… There’s plenty of literature on it. But, even though I know the news is often skewed toward a Democratic opinion, I was surprised how many were in favor of his policies and believed that they would continue to drive the type of growth we’ve seen under the Trump administration.
What’s your take? Would Biden totally tank the economy like President Trump claims? Or would we all live in a better world under Biden’s regime?
My name is Derek, and I have my Bachelors Degree in Finance from Grand Valley State University. After graduation, I was not able to find a job that fully utilized my degree, but I still had a passion for Finance! So, I decided to focus my passion in the stock market. I studied Cash Flows, Balance Sheets, and Income Statements, put some money into the market and saw a good return on my investment. As satisfying as this was, I still felt that something was missing. I have a passion for Finance, but I also have a passion for people. If you have a willingness to learn, I will continue to teach.